Several days ago, Russia launched a, if not surprising then unexpected invasion of its neighbor Ukraine. Using a series of strange justifications it has declared it is “de-Nazifying” a country which has a Jewish president. The opening moves largely fell flat and instead the Russians have looked like they are settling in for a long war, using rockets and artillery to pound Ukrainian positions. Despite a valiant defense, the Ukrainians are being pushed back on a number of fronts and the Russians slowly gain ground.
The war originates from the 2014 Maidan Revolt which pushed former President Yanukovych from power and elected a more Western friendly government. This led to pro-Russian uprisings in the East of the country in the Donbas and pro-Russians demonstrations across much of the south as well. Russia responded by annexing the Crimean peninsula and backing the armed insurgency in the Donbas. Since then the conflict has been a frozen one which had cost roughly 14,000 lives. There had been ongoing talks at Minsk in Belarus, but those had stalled and seemed the only ones Russia is interested in, though this treaty would have effectively vassalized the country to Moscow.
With diplomacy not working, Putin decided (for reasons which are currently not fully known) that now was the time to invade. In the early morning hours of February 24th 2022 missiles slammed into targets across Ukraine, and people were sent fleeing as Russian troops began crossing the border on multiple axis. An attempt was made at taking Kyiv in a lightning campaign, but seemed to fail in 48 hours, and so a pounding series of advances and attacks has continued, with the major cities of Ukraine all falling under attack either from Russian missiles, airpower, or infantry and armor.
To the surprise of many, the world has been quick to unite in condemning Russia with the European Union and NATO members (mostly) quick to lay enormous and comprehensive sanctions on Russia itself. Financial aid and weapons have flowed across the borders while hundreds of thousands of refugees have flowed out in the face of the Russian advance. Against the expectations of many the Ukrainians have put up a heroic resistance, and stymied the Russian effort to take Kyiv and other major cities. It has given rise to many moments on social media as the broadcast of Ukrainian troops on Snake Island was sent out telling a Russian warship to “go fuck yourself” and a Ukrainian woman telling a Russian soldier to put sunflower seeds in his pocket so when he dies flowers will grow there. There was also rumours of the first 21st century air ace the “Ghost of Kyiv” who had downed upwards of 6 Russian fighter jets. It has been inspiring to see the outpouring of support for Ukraine and these morale boosting stories.
That being said, the war has also allowed people to see how social media manipulates perceptions in real time. Contrary to expectations the Russians have launched a poor propaganda campaign, and seem to expect to drive on the country and be greeted as liberators (sound familiar?) which has not materialized. In contrast, the Ukrainian government has made many extraordinary claims about Russian casualties, and even originally claimed the garrison of Snake Island had been massacred – it turned out they had instead taken the sane option and surrendered to Russian forces, keeping the one liner going.
While the war is only a week old, it has been fascinating to watch the rumours spread in almost real time. The Ukrainians have been tight lipped about their own casualties and deployments, while the Russians have been notably reticent in publishing anything at all other than broad threats at the West. I’ve seen a lot of fake videos and information shared and so I am hesitant to declare exactly what is happening or who has lost what, and am mostly following what news outlets or other war watchers are saying. It’s important to remember that each side is waging a propaganda war, the Russians want the Ukrainians to think the war is hopeless and give in, and the Ukrainians want to show the world they are defeating the Russians and inflicting heavy casualties. There’s so much confusion from an active warzone that real time commentary is almost impossible. For an interesting take on the war thus far, a wargame was run a few weeks in advance to the actual war which makes for fascinating reading.
As it stands, the war continues. There have been some talks, but few are hopeful they will result in anything. Some think that they are merely stalling, but we can pray that they may lead to something like peace.
War aside however, this has done away with a few polite fictions in the modern world. The irritating “end of history” meme propagated by Francis Fukuyama, if it wasn’t killed dead by 9/11 has been firmly buried now. The “Golden Arches Theory” of war is also irrevocably dead. Russia under Putin is no longer considered an actor in good faith on the international stage, and many ideas about a ‘clean’ modern war have been firmly dispensed with. This is not the first war to be broadcast on social media despite what some claim, that dubious honor goes to the Syrian Civil War or the fight against ISIL (especially by the Kurds) but this is the one with the most real time updates broadcast so thoroughly around the world. It has also killed the idea that refugees couldn’t be taken in as hundreds of thousands flee to neighboring countries, and nearly one million Ukrainians have fled to neighboring states.
While many have commented that this is the end of the post Cold War era, in which there was a general consensus among nations, I would argue that era died in 2003 when the United States launched the unsanctioned invasion of Iraq. It would be folly to think that dictators hadn’t taken notice of the lack of consequences, and Putin seems to have believed that from 2008 onwards, no one was going to stop him even if he fully invaded Ukraine. That this was in error has consequences that have yet to be seen for the worlds would be neo-imperialists.
We are still in uncharted territory. Such high intensity wars between peer competitors haven’t been fought in decades. Russia’s previous short sharp wars in Georgia and the support of the rebels were quick and decisive. The 2003 invasion of Iraq gave way to a grinding insurgency, so we are very much dealing with uncharted waters. Not that some fiction hasn’t tried, but we really don’t know what may happen going forward. We are sadly living in interesting times. The most we can do now is donate or help the people of Ukraine as we can, and pray for peace.
Solidarity with the Ukrainian people against the invader.
Matthew Stienberg 